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Friday 25 September 2026

Big four bank doubles its housing price crash forecast

A major bank doubles its forecast for national price falls, economists warn of a double RBA hike before Christmas, and $1.64bn is stripped from asking prices.

Forecasts have turned sharply negative. One of the big four has doubled the size of the price fall it expects, economists are openly canvassing two rate rises before Christmas, and vendors are already cutting asking prices by amounts measured in the millions. Below that, the market keeps producing the sort of results that stop you mid-scroll: an untouched Maroubra bungalow on a $6.5m guide, an Olympic gold medallist wearing a loss in Brighton, and a strata committee ordered to hand over $47,000.

  1. 01 prices

    Big four bank doubles the size of its expected housing downturn

    One of Australia's largest banks has doubled its forecast for national housing price falls in the space of three months, according to realestate.com.au. The revised numbers have one capital city falling by double digits, enough to erase several years of accumulated gains in that market.

    It is a forecast, not a result, and bank house views on prices have a history of being revised in both directions. But the speed of the change matters for anyone deciding whether to buy now or wait, and for recent buyers watching their equity buffer thin out.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  2. 02 rates

    Nearly half of surveyed economists tip two RBA hikes before Christmas

    Close to half the leading economists in a new survey reported by realestate.com.au expect the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate twice before the end of the year, rather than once.

    Two increases in quick succession would land on borrowers before the Christmas spending period and would reset serviceability calculations for anyone currently pre-approved. Mortgage holders on variable rates should be stress-testing repayments against a double move, not a single one — though these remain economists' expectations, not RBA guidance.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  3. 03 prices

    $1.64 billion stripped from asking prices, with one cut of $6 million

    Analysis published by realestate.com.au puts the total value of price reductions on Australian listings at nearly $1.64 billion, with the single largest discount running to $6 million. The cuts reflect vendors who have had to reset expectations to meet the market.

    Discounting on this scale is the clearest evidence available that listed prices and buyer willingness have separated. For buyers, the properties carrying the deepest cuts are the ones where the vendor has already signalled flexibility; for sellers, it is a warning about the cost of launching at an ambitious number.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  4. 04 rates

    Each rate rise may lock 30,000 households out of home ownership

    The ABC reports research finding that every standard interest rate increase could push close to 30,000 households out of home ownership, with some of those households shut out for a decade or more. The analysis raises the question of whether recent rate moves have cancelled out the ownership gains delivered by tax changes.

    The finding puts a number on something first home buyers already feel. It also sharpens the political stakes of the next RBA decision, given the effect on any given household is measured in years, not months.

    Read the full story at ABC
  5. 05 notable sale

    Untouched 1920s Maroubra bungalow carries a $6.5m guide

    A modest 1920s bungalow in Maroubra, described as being in original condition and believed to be one of the last untouched homes in its pocket, has been listed with a $6.5 million guide, realestate.com.au reports.

    The guide is a reminder that in Sydney's eastern beaches the land and the position carry the price, not the dwelling. Buyers at that level are typically pricing a knock-down or a full restoration into the bid.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  6. 06 policy

    Report: 510,000 social homes needed by 2050 as waitlists head to 190,000

    A new report covered by realestate.com.au projects Australia will need 510,000 social homes by 2050, with public housing waitlists forecast to reach 190,000 households.

    The figures set a benchmark against which current federal and state housing programs can be measured. For the private rental market, the shortfall matters too: households that cannot access social housing remain in the private rental pool, adding to competition at the cheaper end.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  7. 07 policy

    Victorian auction buyers will know the reserve price from October

    From October, buyers at all Victorian auctions will be told the seller's reserve price, under new rules flagged by Metropole. The change targets the situation where a buyer spends weeks inspecting a property and pays for building and legal checks, only to find at auction that the seller wanted far more than the advertised range.

    Metropole's view is that this will change bidding behaviour. The practical effect for Melbourne buyers is that due diligence spend can be targeted at campaigns where the reserve is actually within reach, rather than discovered on auction day.

    Read the full story at Metropole
  8. 08 notable sale

    Grant Hackett sells Brighton dream home site at a loss

    Olympic gold medallist Grant Hackett has offloaded the Brighton site he bought for $8.5 million, and realestate.com.au reports the sale leaves him out of pocket.

    Prestige land in Melbourne's bayside suburbs has long been treated as a safe store of value, so a loss on a site of this calibre is a data point worth noting for anyone holding a development block through a soft patch.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  9. 09 notable sale

    Tammy Hembrow's Broadbeach Waters mansion passes in at auction

    Influencer Tammy Hembrow's Broadbeach Waters home passed in at its spring auction, with realestate.com.au reporting a deal in the $4 million range failed to materialise despite her audience of 18 million followers.

    Passing in is now a common outcome on the Gold Coast prestige market rather than an aberration, and it underlines that profile and reach do not substitute for a registered bidder willing to meet the reserve.

    Read the full story at REA Group
  10. 10 policy

    Owner wins $47,000 from strata committee over botched tenant lease

    An apartment owner has won a dispute against her strata committee and been awarded $47,000 in connection with a tenant lease that went wrong, realestate.com.au reports.

    For investors in strata schemes, the outcome is a useful precedent: decisions made by an owners corporation that affect an individual lot owner's tenancy arrangements can carry a financial consequence for the scheme.

    Read the full story at REA Group

This brief is compiled automatically from Australian news sources and reviewed before publication. Each item links to the original reporting, which remains the work of the publisher credited. General information only — not financial or investment advice.

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