Big four bank doubles its housing crash forecast

1. 01 prices

   Big four bank doubles its housing price fall forecast

   One of Australia's largest banks has doubled its forecast for a national housing price fall in the space of three months, according to realestate.com.au, with one capital city now tipped to shed a double-digit percentage and give back several years of gains.

   Forecast revisions of that size in a single quarter are unusual, and they matter beyond the headline number: bank house price assumptions feed into serviceability settings, valuation caution and how lenders treat higher-LVR applications. For owners, it is a forecast rather than a result — but it is the direction of travel the market is now pricing in.

   Read the full story at REA Group →
2. 02 rates

   Finder survey: nearly half tip a 4.85% cash rate by Christmas

   Finder's monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey has canvassed 41 experts and economists, with the overwhelming majority expecting the Reserve Bank to lift the cash rate again when it meets on Tuesday. Close to half of the panel expect the rate to reach 4.85 per cent by the end of the year.

   These are forecasts, not decisions, but the panel is close to unanimous on the near-term direction. Borrowers on variable rates should be modelling repayments at a higher level than they are paying now, and anyone approaching a fixed-rate expiry should be talking to a broker well before it rolls off.

   Read the full story at Metropole →
3. 03 lending

   Low-deposit buyers at risk of owing more than their homes are worth

   New data reported by realestate.com.au suggests thousands of Australians who bought through a federal low-deposit support program promoted by Anthony Albanese are at risk of negative equity, owing their lender more than the property is now worth.

   Low-deposit schemes work in a rising market and bite hard in a falling one, because a small equity buffer disappears quickly. Negative equity does not force a sale on its own — repayments still have to be met — but it removes the option of refinancing or selling without bringing cash to settlement, which is where the real stress shows up.

   Read the full story at REA Group →
4. 04 rentals

   West Melbourne tradie sells up after $1,200-a-month shortfall

   A tradesman in Melbourne's west has told realestate.com.au he is selling his investment property after the holding costs blew out to roughly $1,200 a month out of his own pocket, abandoning a strategy he had built his retirement plans around.

   It is one landlord's story, but the arithmetic is familiar: rents have not kept pace with interest costs, rates, insurance and maintenance for investors who bought with a slim buffer. Every investor exit of this kind also removes a rental from a tight market, which is why negative cash flow among small landlords is a renter issue as much as an investor one.

   Read the full story at REA Group →
5. 05 policy

   Victorian auction reserves to be disclosed to bidders from October

   From October, buyers at every Victorian auction will be told the vendor's reserve price, ending the situation where a bidder can spend weeks on inspections, building reports and legal checks only to discover at the fall of the hammer that the seller wanted far more than the advertised range.

   Metropole notes the change is likely to alter bidding behaviour rather than eliminate it — knowing the reserve tells you where the property is genuinely on the market, but not what a competitor is prepared to pay above it. For buyers, the practical gain is fewer wasted due diligence dollars on campaigns that were never priced within reach.

   Read the full story at Metropole →
6. 06 notable sale

   Dusty Martin sells down $20m portfolio, likely at a loss in Abbotsford

   Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin is selling down a real estate portfolio worth about $20 million, with Nine reporting he is likely to receive less than the $3 million he paid for a building in the inner-Melbourne suburb of Abbotsford.

   The Abbotsford result is a useful marker of where inner-Melbourne commercial and mixed-use stock is sitting. Buying well known names into the market does not insulate anyone from a repricing, and a high-profile portfolio unwind at these levels says something about how thin the buyer pool has become for that type of asset.

   Read the full story at Nine →
7. 07 rates

   Two big banks tip a 4% inflation print ahead of the RBA meeting

   Two of the major banks expect August headline inflation to come in at 4 per cent or above, InfoChoice reports, a result they say would justify a cash rate rise at next week's Reserve Bank meeting. One of the two is also forecasting a further increase in November.

   The inflation print is the immediate swing factor for mortgage holders. If it lands where these banks expect, a Tuesday move becomes close to a formality and the debate shifts to how many more follow — with November already on at least one bank's card.

   Read the full story at InfoChoice Group →
8. 08 prices

   Gold Coast "crash" claims overstated, Metropole argues

   Metropole has pushed back on weekend reporting that Gold Coast prices are falling sharply, arguing the evidence behind the claim rests largely on asking-price data rather than settled sales, and that the market is not collapsing in the way the coverage suggests.

   Asking prices and sale prices are different measures, and they diverge most in a slow market where vendors are adjusting expectations. Buyers reading crash headlines about a particular region should check what data the claim is built on before assuming the discount is already there.

   Read the full story at Metropole →
9. 09 notable sale

   Sydney Mechanics' School of Arts lists 280 Pitt Street for $40m

   The Sydney Mechanics' School of Arts, home to Australia's oldest lending library, has listed its building at 280 Pitt Street in the Sydney CBD with a $40 million price tag.

   Heritage institutional buildings rarely come to market in the core CBD, and the listing will test appetite for older Sydney office and mixed-use stock at a point when commercial values are under pressure. The result will be read closely by anyone holding similar assets in the city.

   Read the full story at Nine →
10. 10 economy

    NSW property industry confidence falls for a fourth straight quarter

    Confidence across the NSW property industry has now declined for four consecutive quarters, with respondents pointing to broader economic conditions and the difficulty of getting projects to stack up financially.

    Feasibility is the part that reaches households. When developers cannot make the numbers work, projects are shelved rather than started, and the supply pipeline that is meant to ease price and rental pressure in NSW thins out several years before anyone feels it.

    Read the full story at Real Estate Business →

This brief is compiled automatically from Australian news sources and reviewed before publication. Each item links to the original reporting, which remains the work of the publisher credited. General information only — not financial or investment advice.