Australian property, mortgages and markets — pulled apart weekly with Phil Tarrant and guests.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack a 25 basis point cash rate rise to a 14-year high, a 19.3 per cent year-on-year jump in national listings to more than 301,000, and a 42.3 per cent lift in distressed listings. They also cover the risks sitting inside bridging and guarantor loans, possible concessions on negative gearing and SMSF borrowing, and why rising offset balances suggest buyers are saving rather than panicking.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack a 25 basis point cash rate rise to a 14-year high, a 19.3 per cent year-on-year jump in national listings to more than 301,000, and a 42.3 per cent lift in distressed listings. They also cover the risks sitting inside bridging and guarantor loans, possible concessions on negative gearing and SMSF borrowing, and why rising offset balances suggest buyers are saving rather than panicking.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman compare France's fiscal position with Australia's, arguing the tax and spending settings here are closer to breaking point than most Australians assume. They also cover the ATO's approach to small business, new underquoting and auction disclosure rules in NSW and Victoria, and what the SMSF residential ban has done to development pipelines.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman work through the spread of negative equity, from 20,000 Perth homes reportedly worth less than owners paid to a harbourside Sydney listing that was offered $28 million pre-budget and is now guiding $20 million plus. They also cover revised bank and economist forecasts, the unintended consequences of the trust and negative gearing changes for builders, falling first home buyer numbers, and One Nation's pledge to restore the CGT discount on two investment properties.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack a sharp slowdown in transaction volumes, with Brisbane listings up 40% year on year against a 20% clearance rate, and NSW stamp duty takings down 23% in September. They also cover discretionary trust tax changes, the Victorian and NSW election promises aimed at property owners, and a heated disagreement over ASIC's latest look at mortgage broker best interest duty.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack the Greens-aligned proposal for publicly owned supermarkets, the fallout from the credit card surcharge changes, and what shifting voter preferences could mean for housing policy. They also warn about the rush into commercial property, particularly inside self-managed super funds, and flag that roughly a quarter of listings are now sitting on the market for six months.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack why the Treasurer's inflation explanation does not stack up against the CPI and oil price data, and why the RBA says it does not model government spending. Phil then sets out a new argument: because aged care entry is means tested against the family home, falling property values shift the cost of caring for older Australians onto the taxpayer. The pair also work through the fallout from the credit card surcharge ban and payday super for small business.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack the week's rate decision and CPI figures, arguing government spending and energy costs are doing more work on inflation than the Treasurer admits. Phil then sets out a new thesis: falling property values could undermine Australia's aged care funding model, because entry to a nursing home is means tested and usually funded by selling the family home. The pair also weigh up the unintended consequences of the credit card surcharge ban and payday super for small business and renters.
Phil Tarrant and Alex Whitlock unpack why economists still expect the RBA to lift the cash rate despite rising unemployment, and what the Intergenerational Report 2026 says about housing, ageing and tax. They also work through the AFR power issue's property rankings, the collapse of a Western Sydney builder group, NIMBY resistance in the Sutherland Shire, and why outer-fringe investor stock is struggling to rent.
With the RBA board meeting and announcing on Tuesday at 2.30pm, the panel weighs up whether a hike lands now or in November, and what a 15-year-high cash rate would mean for servicing. They also unpack Block Earner's Bitcoin-backed deposit loan, the blurry line between non-banks and private lenders, and survey data on how much of the loan process borrowers would hand to an AI agent.
Phil Tarrant and Broker Daily's Julian Bartels unpack new figures showing roughly 1,800 Australian borrowers change lenders every day, and why service, not just rate, is behind the churn. They also cover the exposure draft on discretionary trust taxation, HSBC's exit from Australian home lending, and an alleged mortgage fraud syndicate being pursued under Strike Force Middleton.
Tom Panos joins Phil Tarrant at the REB Top 100 Agents event to break down where the current correction is biting hardest, by geography and by price point. The pair also discuss housing supply, the budget's impact on investors and SMSF arrangements, and whether Australia is heading towards a property-led recession.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack the collapse of a major volume builder with about 15,000 homes in the pipeline, why CBA has joined ANZ in tipping a November rate rise, and what sticky housing-driven inflation means for buyers. They also argue over listing volumes, replacement cost versus falling prices in Melbourne, and whether the federal government's housing 'fairness' messaging stacks up.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman work through what a slower transaction market means for the businesses that sit around property: real estate agencies, buyer's agents and state government stamp duty receipts. They also cover Australia's federal debt passing $1 trillion, the jobless rate lifting to 4.5%, minimum wage guarantees for gig economy delivery work, and the second tranche of negative gearing legislation that fixes the so-called widow's tax.
ANZ reported mortgage application flows fell 12% between the 12 May federal budget and the end of July, and open home attendance has halved nationally since February. Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman look at what softer volumes mean for borrowers, why bank BDMs are suddenly chasing brokers, and which markets are showing the fastest declines. They also cover a NSW Supreme Court case on third party deposit trust accounts and the taxpayer funding of the Tomago aluminium smelter.
Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack why the same market data is producing opposite headlines, from REA's Cameron McIntyre arguing price falls are overblown to NAB tipping drops of up to 10 per cent. They also examine builders advertising "free stamp duty", the rush of buyer's agents rebranding as commercial specialists, and what shrinking transaction volumes mean for state stamp duty receipts.
One page. Everything that moved Australian property overnight, with links straight to the source.
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